STAGE 19

WOW - A dead heat in the Tour de France. Could anybody have ever predicted that.

Well that could well have been the case if not for the bizarre incident on the climb of Porte de Bales where Andy Schleck managed to turn a 31 second advantage to an 8 second deficit in one tragic moment. That 39 second turnaround is exactly how much Schleck has lost the Tour by.

In actual fact, it would have come down to a fraction of one second. You also have to take into account that without 'the incident' Schleck would have been chasing Contador in the time trial. Just another little 'if' to add to to the equation.

But that's probably too many ifs, even for me.

As the first time checks came through and it was announced Schleck had actually gained a couple of seconds, my thoughts flashed back to 1989 when American Greg Lemond, riding in front of Frenchman Laurent Fignon closed a seemingly impossible gap to win the Tour by eight seconds.

It is actually quite staggering to think you can race for 21 days and near on 3000 kilometres, over some of the toughest terrain available, and it comes down to just a handful of seconds.

I have to say it's all left me a bit flat. It's natural to want to see the best man win but I'm just not sure who that is!

Stuart O'Grady is Andy's team captain on the road and he did a huge ride to finish 13th in the time trial. That is actually quite staggering when you look at the amount of work the speckled redhead from Adelaide has done over the past three weeks. I asked Stuey just how much of a kick in the guts it was to get so tantalisingly close yet again. "C'est la vie. It is bloody terrible, but you know, Andy gave it a nudge and he didn't leave anything out on the road," a resigned O'Grady said.

Cadel has had a tour he would rather forget but, unlike last year, this was a tour of what ifs. I have no doubt his untimely crash on stage seven wrecked what would have been a solid tour, and he maybe even a spot on the podium. Oops that's another if sneaking in.

But riding with a fractured elbow would be bad enough, then you add the ancillary problems such as lack of sleep and the other issues that arose from having to change his position on the bike, and that just added to the awkward situation and intensified the pain. I don't think I've ever seen Cadel grimace so often.

As you are reading this and the final sprint into Paris has just been completed and I can only hope that Robbie McEwen managed to somehow overcome the odds and the HTC Columbia train to take out the final stage. If that does happen then I won't be so flat that's for sure.

STAGE 17

What a great stage - one of the best I've seen in the 15 tours I've covered.

Andy Schleck had no option but to attack with all guns blazing up the monster climb of Col du Tourmalet. And attack he did. Ten kilometres from the summit, Schleck just put the hammer down and set a super high place that just blew the opposition away. Well all but the man he really wanted to get rid of, Alberto Contador. Schleck new that an intense, continuous attack was the best strategy for two good reasons.

If he had tried to launch short intense attacks it probably would have played into Contador's hands as the wily Spaniard is the best at the short sharp lunge. But secondly, although Andy would have been focused on trying to take some time from Alberto, he was also very concerned about Spaniard Sammy Sanchez and Russian powerhouse Denis Menchov who were not too far behind and both are strong time triallers, with Menchov being one of the world's best.

And it's today's time trial, the race of truth, that is going to decide this race. In a time trial there is no place to hide and the best man usually wins. Most expect Contador to dominate this contest. He has become one of the best at the race against the clock, and probably the best in the final week of a grand tour.

But it's only eight seconds and Schleck will definitely believe he has a chance. Aussie Brad McGee, who is Sports Director with Saxo Bank, says this race is not over. "Andy is in great form and is just getting stronger each day. I won't say that Andy will win but I can tell you he will do a good time trial and stranger things have happened. It only needs Andy to have a great day and Alberto to be a fraction of the pace, as it's only eight seconds. This race is definitely not over," An upbeat McGee said.

Cadel didn't have a great stage up to the Tourmalet and all I could get out of him after was 'it's cold.' Cadel is normally very strong in the final time trial of the tour but is unlikely to ride a high placing this time because of his injuries.

STAGE 16

It's going to be one helluva battle up the vicious slopes of the Col du Tourmalet.

There is no doubt that Andy Schleck will attack and attack, then attack some more. Schleck is still filthy over the dropped chain incident and Contador's very late apology.

But to win this tour, Schleck is going to have to take more than a minute out of the Spaniard and it will be a tough task.

As we approach the final days of this year's controversial race, the most surprising aspect for me is that Schleck and Contador have not really had a red hot go at each other. There have been a few thrusts like when Andy won his stage. And also when Andy lost his chain, but nothing really prolonged. Well today that will change.

With two cat one climbs before the final monster it should be one of the most brutal days in the history of the tour.

The other fascinating battle has been the race for the green jersey where defending champion Thor Hushovd has had his hands full holding off the superior speed of Alessandro Petacchi.

But it's been the aggressive riding style of the Norwegian Hushovd that has finally swung the pendulum his way and the battle looks all but won now. The gracefull Italian Petacchi has ridden a superb race and done a lot to save the reputation he had as a softy who could not finish the Tour. But he has other issues looming that could take his mind off the racing as a drugs investigation back in Italy gains momentum.

STAGE 15

This year's edition of the Tour de France is certainly turning out to one of the most be a controversial, but at least they are all about racing incidents.

There is raging and opposing debate going in the press room and with the riders themselves, as to whether Contador should have waited when Schleck dropped his chain on the final kilometres of the final climb of the huge Port de Bales HC climb.

Personally, I think he should have eased and I don't believe Alberto's statement that he didn't know Andy was in trouble. Schleck had just put in a withering attack and Contador was clawing his way back. Suddenly Schleck is stationary in the middle of the road and Contador rode passed. He knew there was a problem. He soon would have been told the full extent of the situation as his team car has television and was looking at the same vision as me. Yes Alberto would have known exactly what was going on before the summit.

Most of the great champions of past years would have waited, and have done so. Armstrong in 2003 waited when Ullrich had an untimely problem and Ullrich returned the favour later. Back in the 60's Anquetil waited when his great rival Poulidor punctured. But Contador sees it differently.

"We'd been marking each other and I was starting to think about attacking. I was told after I did attack that there had been an incident, but when I launched the attack I didn't have any idea about what the incident was," Contador said. "When I did find out what had happened we already had a big advantage and it was too late to do anything about it as we were all riding hard."

"I attacked before he had a problem with his chain and was a long way ahead when I heard what had happened," Contador said.

Well that part is a straight out lie. Contador went past a stationary Schleck who was in the process of dismounting.

"I realise that this is a delicate situation and that there is going to be a lot of debate about it," Contador said. "But as I said before, at the moment I attacked I didn't know what had happened to him, and when I found out I was already a long way ahead. On the Spa stage I told my teammates to stop without knowing at that time whether the riders who were in the lead would do the same. Then we had the stage on the pavé and there was another situation with a crash and the race did not stop there. And anyway I don't believe that 30 seconds at this point in the race is going to decide whether or not you win the Tour de France," he said.

Well, I think he is right there. This race is going to be won over the next two mountain stages, and may the best man win.

STAGE 14

It was a weird first day in the Pyrenees. Instead of the Saxo team of leader Andy Schleck controlling the pace of the peloton, it was the Astana team of second place Alberto Contador.

But when the real pressure was applied on the final climb of stage 14 to Ax 3 Domains, the two favourites forgot about the rest of their competitors

Contador and Schleck certainly only had eyes for each other and showed little concern when Russian Denis Menchov and Spain's Sammy Sanchez moved clear in the final five kilometres as Contador continually tried to get behind Schleck. It was a strange dance the pair played when they were virtually doing track stands on the steep slopes.

If it continues on like this then Contador will be the big winner as Schleck needs to gain at least a minute before the penultimate time trail stage.

If Andy's brother Frank was still in the race then it would be a different story as the pair would be able to attack Contador but that is not the case so Andy has to come up with a plan and attack Contador. He really has to ride as though it was Contador wearing the leader's Maillot Jaune.

It is looking very much like the dreaded Tourmalet will decide this tour and it will likely be on the second assent on Thursday where the 17th stage finishes on the summit.

Cadel has blown all chance of a top 10 placing and will need to get in an early breakaway to have a chance of a stage victory.

 

"I don't know what's the matter but I'm riding pretty badly, pretty disappointingly," a shattered Cadel said.

STAGE 13

I suppose we should forgive people their indiscretions and move on. Especially if that person is genuinely sorry.

Well I'm sorry because I can't feel good about Alexandre Vinokourov's stage victory.

As we approached the finish I remembered the last time I was in Revel in 2005 and witnessed a gallant ride by Simon Gerrans to finish third. It gave me a real buzz as we climbed the hill and then dropped into town on this fantastic circuit. But as we watched Vinokourov explode from the peloton and realised that he was just too strong, I was left with a hollow feeling in the gut.

There is no doubt that Vino's ride showed all the brilliant attributes that had made his reputation as one of the greatest attacking riders of the modern era. It's just that his positive test and expulsion from the 2007 tour was a terrible blow to the sport and he has never showed any real remorse.

But the quality of his win showed that the aggressive Kazak is back in form and he will be a genuine challenger for the world road championship in Geelong in October. Maybe even the favourite.

The battle for the green jersey is certainly hotting up with Petacchi snatching back the lead by a bare two points. There are only two stages left that could end in a mass sprint and there is no doubt the tall Italian has the wood on the chunky Norwegian in the sprints. But it's the aggresive style of Hushovd where he breaks clear in the mountain stages and grabs some of the intermediate sprints that have kept him in the battle. Mark Cavendish has really stamped his authority in the stage finishes but 25 points is just too much of a deficit, even for him. Robbie McEwen has dropped back to fourth in the battle for green and is aching all over from his various touch downs. I asked Robbie if he was looking forward to Paris and a stage win on the Champs Elysees. "I'm just looking forward to getting into the bus and recovering from today." A shattered McEwen said.

 

STAGE 11

I have seen some terrible decisions in my time but this one tops the lot. Mark Renshaw is one of the cleanest and fairest riders in the peloton and was devastated at the decision to send him home.

I have watched the footage many times and, at worst Renshaw should have copped a fine and maybe relegation. But Kiwi Julian Dean was the instigator of the incident and I have no idea what he was bashing into Renshaw for in the first place once he had delivered his team-mate Tyler Farrar onto the wheel of Cavendish.

Evidently it was more the move to the left after the head-butting that caused the most angst for the officials. But Renshaw swears that he was just chasing the wheel of his team captain Cavendish. He moved across sharply and Farrar fenede him off with his hand.

It is a severe penalty for any sprinter but ridiculous for someone with such an exemplary record.

Although Farrer saw it differently and felt that Renshaw was only trying to hinder his run and felt that Mark should be sent home.

But there is something wrong with a system that looks at the vision and does not speak with the riders involved. At time of printing, there seemed to be no right of appeal although I can't imagine HTC Columbia boss Bob Stapelton leaving it there.

Dean and Renshaw are two of the nicest guys in the peloton and normally it's very hard to ruffle their feathers but put them in a sprint with a job to do and these two roosters certainly suffer with a touch of white line fever and are both very determined characters, as was shown in the finale.

I spoke with many current and former tour riders and, to a man, all thought there were mistakes made by both lead-out men and that Renshaw should not have been disqualified.

It is going to make it extremely tough for the young Manxman in the upcoming stages now that he has lost both his Aussie lead-out men, and Cavendish and his squad are going to have to rethink their tactics.

Mark Renshaw and his close mate Cavendish looked dejected once the announcement really sunk in.

"I'm extremely disappointed and also surprised at this decision," Renshaw said. "I never imagined I would be removed from any race especially the Tour de France. I pride myself on being a very fair, safe and a straight up sprinter and never in my career have I received a fine or even a warning."

"Julian came hard in on my position with his elbows.  I needed to use my head to retain balance or there would have been a crash. If had used my elbows when Julian brought his elbow on top of mine we would also have crashed. The object was to hold my line and stay upright.

"I hadn't started the sprint yet. We were still at 375m to go. After that Cavendish had to start his sprint early and I was also ready to finish off the sprint as I still had a lot left in my legs. It would have been good to try to take some more points. I only saw open space on my left. I had no idea Tyler Farrar was there. By no means would I ever put any of my fellow riders in danger."

Cadel looked in fine spirits after the finish and appreciated the easier day with less climbing and descending. "Yes it's all getting a bit better. Stiff and sore as always but there are lot of guys who are stiff and sore like me. Another day before we get serious tomorrow."

STAGE 10

There are two separate battles going on in this Tour.

Of course there is the struggle for the Maillot Jaune where Andy Schleck holds a slim 41 second lead over Alberto Contador and daylight to third. But then there is the intriguing battle for the points competition and the coveted green jersey, the Maillot Vert.

Schleck and Contador seem to have put the gloves away for the time being and we are unlikely to see them taking each other on in earnest until the stage 14 mountain finish at Ax-3 Domains in the Pyrenees.

But it's the battle for green that is hotting up. In the tough stage to Gap, the race profile looked too hard for the sprinters but they fought their way back to the main group and you would have thought that they were racing for a stage win, such was the intensity of the sprint for ninth place. This section of the race is decided totally on points each day. With the winner receiving a reduced 25 points for a mountain stage. Cavendish took the sprint ninth and more importantly the valuable 12 points from Petacchi with 11, Hushovd with ten and McEwen with nine.

Defending points champion Thor Hushovd on 138 points holds a slim seven point lead in the competition of over Petacchi, with McEwen third on 116 points and Cavendish moving up to fifth on 97 points.The next few days could well decide the battle for green.

Cadel on the other hand is having lots of trouble even holding the handlebars and is going to have serious problems in finishing this bike race.

"I think I have to have some x-rays in a couple of days to see if there's any displacement," he said.

"I'm feeling better today, it's a good sign. Obviously it's not as difficult a stage (as Tuesday).

"I spoke to my manager Tony Rominger last night and he said the Madeleine's the hardest climb in the world, so it made me feel a little bit better about everything."

Evans admitted that he was having serious challenges in handling his bike and apologised to fellow riders after revealing he could only use his right hand to brake on many of the corners.

"The thing that was difficult yesterday was especially the descent just because the bumps and things and the swelling on the arm," he said.

"It's all only a small fracture by riding the Tour de France isn't exactly easy thing in the world.

"Braking is actually the hardest thing.

"Sorry to guys in the group, but I was actually a bit nervous but it's a bit hard when you've only got one hand for the front brakes.

"But it feels better and hopefully good signs that I will be able to continue.

"In all honesty, it wasn't the hardest day I've had on my bike."

"I've got to take it day by day but, if I can recover, it's possible," he said of a top 10 finish.

"But I need to recover and be pretty healthy again, but day by day."

STAGE 9

It was dark day for Australian cycling as Cadel Evans hopes of finishing in Paris wrapped in the Maillot Jaune will have to wait another year.

Cadel proved just how tough he is by soldiering on with a fractured left elbow and it also shows just how good his ride was to get yellow into Morzine - Avoriaz. Evans was in a lot of pain and had trouble handling his bike on the descents, I don't know how he managed the climbs.

An emotional Cadel Evans broke down on crossing the finish line and buried his head into teammate Mauro Santambrogio's shoulder as the pair comforted each other after a brutal day on Le Tour.

To win the Tour de France you need luck on your side and that certainly has not been the case for Cadel over the years. I spoke to Lance Armstrong soon after the finish in St Jean de Maurienne and asked him how much luck affected his tour. "I haven't had much luck on this tour," Lance said but then a broad smile broke out across his face. "But I can't complain as I won this race seven times straight and had only good luck." Lance went on to say how tough the Madeleine was. "It's one of the toughest climbs in the tour and there is nowhere to hide he said. He was also non committal on who his successor as boss of the peloton. After a thoughtful pause Lance said, "Jury is still out on that one."

Evans started the stage with his elbow heavily strapped and after the stage Ochowitz revealed that Evans had ridden with a fractured elbow.

Evans admitted that he was badly affected by his crash early on Sunday's stage.

"I'm not at my normal level, but when you're in yellow at the Tour de France, you've got to be there," he said.

"The team was just fantastic but I'm the one who had the crash two days ago. I'm the one that is wearing the jersey and I'm the one that is vulnerable. I'm not my normal self if I get dropped by a group like that. Normally today was a chance for the stage win and it wouldn't have an effect on the GC. Now I'm pretty sure it's all over for this year."

An obviously drained Cadel apologised to his team.

"This year there's been two health problems: the Giro and now here things aren't at my normal level. I put in a lot of work and I suffer on my bike everyday and I do it with pleasure. For the guys who have supported me and been so good, the team and Andy Rihs, the owner of the team and everyone who has believed in this project," Cadel said.

Team manager Jim Ochowicz explained that the fracture to Evans' elbow was discovered during the rest day on Monday, but the team decided not to reveal the real problem.

"During the rest day, Cadel's elbow shoulder and hip were still bothering him so Dr. Testa took him to the clinic in Morzine and he has a fracture in his elbow," Ochowicz said.

"We decided as a team not to tell anybody about it and try and fake it through the race and get to the finish. We didn't want to let our competitors know and have them attacking him during the race on the early climbs."

"We controlled the race today, knowing that we had a problem with Cadel's injury but we weren't sure what the outcome was going to be. You saw the outcome, he doesn't have full mobility in his elbow and so had difficulty staying with the group, even when we were doing tempo. At the end, the injury just overwhelmed him."

Dr. Testa stated that Evans will continue in the race unless there is a risk of permanent damage.

"It's a stable fracture, small, but very painful," Testa said. "Cadel is a super tough guy so he managed very well. He did as much as any human could do."

 

REST DAY

Cadel Evans decided the rest day was going to be exactly that - a day of rest.

So that meant no press conference, which is very strange for the leader of the race. Fortunately Cadel held a special conference for SBS and a couple of us Aussie journos.

Cadel was quick to pint out that he is happy to take the yellow jersey now, even though it means a bit of work for his BMC team.

He also said that he is better equipped to handle the pressure of wearing the Maillot Jaune because of the switch to BMC.

Cadel walked into the small gathering with wife Chiara and dog Molly. I shook hands with Cadel, kissed Chiara but kept well clear of Molly who bit me at the same time last year.

Cadel was asked if his attitude and demeanour had changed since last year. "I think everyone's perspective towards me has changed. I'm the same person," he said

"I have changed teams in that time. It's a real change of environment with BMC. We have a really good work ethic among the team.

"That's an environment I like to work in and it suits me.

"I don't have any unrealistic expectations on me from the BMC team."

Cadel has been a sensational world champion, maybe the best since Eddy Merckx.

But Cadel has now managed to swap the rainbow jersey for the Maillot Jaune and he was excited at the prospect of wearing the leaders jersey and doing it proud.

"The rainbow (jersey), you do one good attack in a race and you get to wear it for a year," he said.

"The Tour de France, you wan work for it for days or weeks and you've got 24 hours before you might lose it again.

"In some ways the rainbow is nicer to have. But I have to consider myself pretty lucky as a bike rider to have swapped the rainbow jersey for the yellow jersey at the Tour de France.

"It's a pretty rare and honourable experience."

Cadel led Saxo Bank's Andy Schleck by 20secs and Astana defending champion Alberto Contador by 1min,41secs entering the ninth stage from Morzine-Avoriaz to Saint Jean de Maurienne.

"It's a long way to go to Paris and the longer you have to defend it (yellow jersey), the harder it is for the team," he said.

"You have to take advantage where you can. We'll play with it and take it day by day.

"It's early to have the yellow and, yeah,it would it be great to take it in the (stage 19) time trial, then you don't have to work your team at all.

"That's a lot easier said than done.

"You've got to take time where you can and it's the best situation I've been in for a long time with time over Contador."

But it all went pear shaped when Cadel was caught up in a massive pile up only seven Kms into the race.

"My arm, it was excruciating the pain," Evans said.

"It was a scary moment but you really don't have time to think about it.

"It made a tough day even tougher.

"Experience counts, fortunately."

Evans said he was surprised by Contador's inability to respond Schleck's surge to the finish on Avoriaz.

"Alberto was looking good on Station des Rousses," Evans said

"Let's see how he is going into the Pyrenees, what level they're climbing at there.

"He was good, but not scary like last year when not even a motorbike could have kept up with him.

"It might have been a sign of vulnerability, a sign that maybe he's not yet at his best. We shall see."

And the Australian lamented the demise of Lance Armstrong.

"I'm an Armstrong fan and I'm sorry that such a fantastic Tour de France career would fall away like that," he said

"I had a fall yesterday, too, and I know what it's like to fall on a mountain climb.

"Trust me, there aren't many harder things to do than crash on a big climb and continue on for the general classification."

Evans said he is better placed than ever to become Australia's first Tour winner.

"I'm feeling pretty good. Mentally, psychologically and emotionally, I'm feeling good," he said

"We've come here to do the best general classification we can.

"To honour the rainbow jersey in yellow is fantastic."

SImon Gerrans was the unluckiest rider on stage eight when he was involved in the early crash, breaking his elbow but continuing on and riding 160 kms in severe pain.

"It hasn't been a good week for me, a Tour de France I would prefer to forget," he said

"They say things come in threes. When it rains it pours, I've got soaked in this race."

"I was hoping to go a bit longer,"

"It wasn't quite planned to leave the Tour on the first rest day.

"There was a crash quite early into the stage where Cadel (Evans) fell and quite a few guys touched down. It was only 7km into the race.

"It looked like someone wiped out right at the front and I was riding towards the front of the bunch trying to cover a few of the early breakaways.

"Guys fell straight in front of me, either side of me, I had nowhere to go.

"I ploughed straight into it and I got up and my handlebars on my bike were broken.

"I had to wait for a spare bike to get going and sort of when I took off - I was in a bit of a hurry to get back to the bunch, it was moving quite quickly - I could feel straight away my arm was hurting.

"I didn't know to what extent, but it felt pretty sore.

"It took me quite a few kms to get back in contact with the bunch. I did what I had to do, just survived the stage.

"Got to the finish and had it checked out.

"I had it scanned this morning. I knew straight away that I hurt it.

"I really suffered through yesterday's stage in the hope that it wasn't too bad and the fact I wasn't going to have an easy day today and be right to start tomorrow.

"But a broken arm is a broken arm, you can't do much about it."

STAGE 8

By: John Trevorrow

Mellow Yellow was a big hit by Donavan in the 60s and it's making a comeback in 2010.

Cadel rode superbly up the slopes to Avoriaz and looks very relaxed in yellow - mellow even.

There is no doubt that Cadel would have preferred to get into the Maillot Jaune later in the tour, but you rarely get the chance to select exactly what day that honour will come your way and I know Cadel is going to relish the opportunity. Cadel has been a sensational world champion, probably the best in the last decade, and I am sure that he will continue with same fighting spirit in his new colour. And yellow certainly suits him.

Today's stage will be Cadel's biggest test until we reach the Pyrenees in the final week. The first HC climb of this year's tour is the 2000 metre Col de la Madeleine, 30 kilometres from the finish in St Jean de Maurienne. I have no doubt Andy Schleck will attack. He has to turn a 20 seconds deficit into at least a two minute advantage before the time trial on the penultimate day.

Although Cadel looked very strong, he could not go with the sudden moves in the final two kilometres. But that is nothing new. It's a bit like comparing a 2 stroke motor to a diesel, Cadel has never been able to answer those sudden surges and prefers, well actually, has to pick up his tempo more gradually. That is going to be his main challenge today. The Madelaine is nearly 25 kilometres long and it's a quick descent and then about 14 kilometres to the finish. It is going to be a tough day for Cadel and, I reckon, the best scenario for him will be to lose a small amount of time that would put Andy in yellow, but not by much.

Mick Rogers put up a gutsy performance and was yo-yoing off the back of the leading group over the final ten kilometres and still only lost 10 seconds to Cadel and has moved up to 10th, 2m.31 s behind his compatriot.

To me the biggest surprise was Lance followed closely by Contador. Armstrong was caught up in a crash early in the stage and had to chase hard up one of the early climbs to regain the peloton and that obviously cooked him. Lance is now out of contention and it will be interesting to see if he continues.

Contador, however, is a bit of a mystery. I expected the Spanish favourite to explode off the front in the finale. His Astana team were superb in setting up the stage and his compatriot Danny Navarrro set such a high pace that some of the favourites, such as Brad Wiggins, were spat out the back.

Although Contador made an attack inside the final two kilometres, it was pretty feeble and he could not respond when Schleck and Sanchez danced off the front. That was very unlike the Alberto of last year.

STAGE 7

Cadel Evans is moving into uncharted territory as the Tour de France hits the high mountains. "Let's see, we've got nine Tour de France wins here in Alberto and Lance and I think it's the first time me and (Andy) Schleck have been in front in nine years," Cadel said.

For Cadel that is very important. In past years when he has been racing Contador and Lance, he has been in the situation where he was the one who had to gain some time to challenge for the lead. This year it has turned out differently and it's all the other GC contenders that have to take time out of Cadel.

In 2007 Cadel came very close to beating Contador but the gap was just too much for him to close in the final time trial. In 2008 Cadel did find himself with a lead over Sastre but his team was just not strong enough and Carlos also had the Schlecks as teammates and that combination proved too strong.

This time around things have fallen into place for Cadel. With Lance and Contador losing time on the cobbles, they now have to gain considerable time back on Cadel. While Andy Schleck is closest at 33 seconds, he needs to gain approximately two minutes on Cadel because of his poor time-trialling ability. And of course losing brother Frank will severely damage his chances. Not only because of the assistance he would have been in the high mountains, but also because of the two edged attack they would have used in that both Schlecks were capable of winning the tour.

Another point in Cadel's favour is that Contador and Armstrong are unlikely to work together to gain back the time. Despite recent stories to the contrary, the pair are not huge fans of each other and are more likely to be trying to put each other out of business.

For Cadel one of the biggest challenges will be his team. It looks very likely that Cadel will be in yellow sooner rather than later, and as good as that will feel, it will put heaps of pressure on his team. BMC racing has some strong guys to help control the race on the flat stages but I wonder if the will be up to it in the mountains. George Hincapie is great teammate to have and a natural leader. but his best mountain climbing days are behind him and other than Swiss Steve Morabito, I don't see a lot of support eventuating once the roads head into the clouds. But Cadel believes the team are are up to it and we can only hope he is right.

STAGE 3
Wow - A day in Hell and what a day it was and what a ride of Cadel's. It is fine for the Cancellaras and O'Grady's to fly over the cobbles as they relish the brutal stones that feature in the Paris Roubaix, but for the GC riders such as Cadel, the Schlecks and Contador, who have never, or rarely, raced over the rutted farm tracks that make up the race known as the 'Hell of the North' it's a bit like throwing a derby horse into a steeplechase.

But it was Cadel that really shone. He looked awesome over roads that are not supposed to suit him, and he, along with Andy Schleck, was the biggest winner on the day.

Lance Armstrong's untimely puncture has seriously damaged his overall challenge and Contador surprisingly lost time after making it through the cobbled sections in a pretty good position. I can't understand what his teammate Vinokourov was doing as it was his strong turns of pace that put his team leader out the back.

The day in hell has really turned this race on its head. Andy Schleck is looking very strong but he has lost his main support in the mountains with the loss of his brother Frank. Contador looked fragile and his team is struggling and there seems to be unrest in the camp. Lance still looks strong but he has lost vital time that he will need to regain in the mountains, no easy task. But, I believe it was Cadel that has come out with biggest gains. He looked strong, confident and more importantly, in control. He had the experienced George Hincapie, Marcus Burghardt and Alessandro Ballan to get him to the right position before the first cobbled secrtion and then the race exploded. It was soon after that when Hincapie punctured and Cadel made sure he stayed on the wheel of the powerful Saxo train and kept out of trouble. That may sound easy but every GC rider was trying to do that but only Cadel and Andy managed it.

I will have to indulge myself a little here as I had, probably, the best day on tour in my 14 years covering the event. Shane Sutton is one of the Sports Directors of the brilliant new Sky team and also one of the guys who put the whole deal together.

Shane is an expat Aussie who rode the Tour de France in 1987 and is now also the British cycling coach. I caught up with Shane just before the start of the dreaded third stage and he asked me if I would like a coffee. That turned out to be from the coffee machine in the Sky team bus and I bumped into the entire team. Journalists are rarely allowed into the hallowed confines of the team bus, especially just before the start of a major event, mainly because it's the riders sanctuary before the start of each stage. I was able to listen to the last minute instructions Shane was handing out to the guys and told me that their strategy was going to be to put Steve Cummings into the early breakaway so that he would be at the front when the race hit the first cobbled section to be able to help their GC rider Brad Wiggins.

"OK iffy," Shane said. "How would you like to go in the team car with me for the stage."

I had to think about what I was going to with all the passengers in my car that day. But not for long. I threw the keys to my trust passenger and herald Sun journo, Leo Schlink, sorry mate your in charge, catch and kill your own.

Next thing I was in the front seat of the Sky car in one of the most anticipated stages of the tour. Soon after the race started the breakaway got clear and sure enough Cummimgs kept his part of the deal and made it into the seven man group. As soon as the gap got past one minute we were call up and managed to get past the 190 strong bunch.

I've got to tell you that the guys who drive the team cars have a special talent and Shane is one of the best. At any one time he was on the race radio, flicking between channels talking to fellow DS Sean Yates in the other Sky car, talking to the riders, listening to the official channel for instructions, taking calls and texts on his moblle and checking out the race book for what's coming up. it was controlled yet chaotic at the same time.

It was an awesome day. We were right behind the breakaway for the next 150 km, moving right up into the break to hand Steve a bidon or give him some information. It was the next best thing to being in the race.

Then we hit the first of the seven cobbled sections and it was fascinating listening to Sean Yates giving the instructions to the team who are all connected on radio. "Righto guys move up, you must stay together and protect Wiggo, it's going to be bloody war out there."

Then as we hit the second cobbled section and the main group were coming, we swapped roles and the intensity of the messages jumped markedly. Sean went to front position and we took up the reserve role. "Come on you guys, fight fight, its a f....n war out there. Get Wiggo with Fletch. In amongst all this Shane is taking or making three calls at once on the race radio as well as taking calls from Dave the team principal who is at the finish watching on TV and giving his two penance worth. Suddenly Simon Gerrans, Sky's leading Aussie, was down but up and on his bike as we got to him. "you all right mate?" Shane asked. Although he nodded his head he din't look too good with abrasions to his face and temple and he looked a bit concussed. But he's as tough as nails and he rode on - of course.

It was just an awesome day and one that will stay top of the hit parade for me.

The next three days will be for the sprinters. There will be plenty of breakaways with Saxo riding tempo on the front to ensure Cancellara stays in yellow and then nearing each days finish, Columbia, Garmin and Cervelo will move to the front to close any gaps then set up their sprinters. Mark Cavendish will be out to stamp his authority and I tip the young manxman to win at least a couple of these stages. But it is Robbie McEwen who is starting to look good. He was in the hands of the medicos before the start of the cobbled stage, getting his wounds redressed and saying that he was having trouble holding the hanlebars. The fact that he finished 14th and got 10 points shows he believes he can win the green jersey.

 

John Trevorrow in Rotterdam - STAGE 1

The buzz around the press centre in Rotterdam is that although Alberto Contador may be the man to beat in this year's Tour de France, the pressure is mounting and the challengers are going to push him all the way to Paris.

Although Cadel has not raced since his impressive fifth place in the Giro d Italia, I believe he has the form to mount a serious challenge in this year's Tour.

"The Giro was pretty tough, but I've got over that and I am now at a good level," Cadel said. "The team is coming to it's best at the right now and,  although we may not have the best team in the mountains, we do have a strong team for the whole tour." Cadel added.

There is little doubt that Contador will be the man to beat and I also believe Lance will be a more serious threat this year. His ride in 2009, after three years out of the sport - as well as a broken collarbone in the lead up, was just amazing.

The Schleck brothers will also be a threat with older brother Frank looking more the danger this year. And Brad Wiggins is sure to improve from his brilliant fourthin his first tour. Basso is back as strong as ever and says he is ready to challenge and fully recovered from his impressive Giro win.

That makes for a crowded podium in Paris and you wonder just how Cadel is going to move his way back amongst such exulted company. Well I reckon Cadel is improving with age. Since becoming world champion Cadel has grown in stature and he has been very strong this year and his win in .. was very impressive and he looked the strongest in the Giro up until he got crook in the last week.

For Cadel to make the podium he will have to ride super smart. I don't think his team is strong enough but with no team time trial in this year's event, Cadel will need to follow Contador and use his team as his own.

In past year's Cadel has copped a bit of criticism for not attacking in the mountains but mostly that criticism has been way off the mark. Cadel is not as good a climber as Contador, Armstrong or Andy Schleck, so for him to attack them is suicidal. On the biggest climbs Cadel just need to hang in there. Where Cadel really shines is in the last week. He has an amazing ability to just hang in there, cop a real hammering and come back and do it again the next day. He has more natural recovery than all of the others.

I don't think the Alps will play as big a role in the final selection this year but the Pyrenees will decide the race. For Cadel to win the tour he will need to lose very little time up the Pyrenean slopes and pull out the time trial of his life on the penultimate stage.

TOUR PROLOGUE

Fabian Cancellara (Saxo Bank) proved he doesn't need a motor to thrash the best in the world in a time trial.

The World Time Trial Champion won his fourth Tour de France prologue in Rotterdam, flying around the tricky 8.9km in a time of 10:00.49.

Recently a You tube story made a ridiculous claim that Cancellara had a battery powered motor secreted into his bike frame when he won the Paris Roubaix Classic. Although it was an absurd allegation the vision had millions of hits around the world and deeply upset the popular Swiss. Although the officials of the sport did not suspect that anyone has actually used a motor in an elite race, the tour decided to use a scanner at the start to check all bikes and alleviate suspicion.  "

Tony Martin (HTC-Columbia) chose to ride early, hoping to get the best of the changing conditions and it looked to have been a wise decision as the heavens opened towards the end of his ride. He was easily the fastest for most of the day but the powerful Swiss showed he was the master and pushed the young German into second spot by 10 seconds. Britain's David Millar (Garmin-Transitions) was third another ten seconds back.

But for me the ride of the day belonged to Lance Armstrong. He showed that he is back to his brilliant best and although there were plenty of dark clouds in the Rotterdam sky,Lance managed to ignore the other storm that is brewing regarding doping allegations from former teammate Floyd Landis. The brash Texan finished fourth 22 seconds from the big Swiss and more importantly put five seconds into his main rival, defending champion, Alberto Contador.

Cadel was in the mix but not very happy with 23rd place, and even less happy at losing those crucial seconds to his main GC rivals. It has been five weeks since Cadel has put on a race number and it did show. 'I don't know if it's really such a good start," Cadel said. "It was pretty wet still when I rode but I don't want to blame it all on that. All the corners, where you wanted it to be dry, were wet so I took it pretty conservatively there. That might have been a couple of seconds in that but nothing too much. I think I lacked the legs a little bit, not bad but not too good. I'll have a look at the GC results first, but nine or 10 seconds out of the GC guys is not really where I wanted to be. But we'll see, early days yet. It is my first race in five weeks, but no excuse. We'll see what happens over the next few days."

Mick Rogers was the top Aussie in 14th place, four seconds ahead of Evans. "It wasn't too bad, I was quite happy," Rogers said. "I didn't exactly have dry roads so I lost some time on the corners, but it's the start of a long journey.This is not my forte, a short time trial. It's not real short, but it's not long, either. The team set Tony (Martin) off early because we saw the weather conditions and it paid off well. It would have been nice to have gone off a bit earlier, but we had to put one of top riders in the last few. Not having a dry road is part of it. A lot of guys out there had worse conditions than I did.

I asked Mick Rogers what he thought of Lance's ride? "He's not called the master for nothing," Rogers said.

Brad Wiggins on the other hand was extremely disappointing. Expected to challenge for the stage, the Englishman finished 77th at 56 seconds along with another favourite Denis Menchov only one second better. Maybe he was bit gun shy after crashing on the circuit while testing it out the day before. "Brad got the worst of the conditions," Sky manager Shane Sutton said. "He decided not to take any risks but all our data shows us that he was just as fast as the leaders in a straight line, he just lost all that time in the corners. We are not concerned," Sutton quipped.

Another race favourite to disappoint was Andy Schleck who lost more than 40 seconds to Armstrong and Contador.

The next couple of day are going to be crucial with the expected side winds on the small exposed roads of Holland and then the brutal cobbled or pave sections on the roads from Belgium into France ensuring that the stages will be raced at a furious pace. All the team managers are telling their star riders and their lieutenants to get to the front at certain vital moments. That is going to make for a crowded and nervous race on very small and exposed roads. The tour will not be won here but there is a real likelihood  that at least one of the main contenders will lose valuable time and could even blow any chance of victory. It is going to be a riveting few days.